(ui) Clarify dashboard backup growth trends

Replace the dashboard trend metric grid with an operational summary that
explains storage usage, runway, average new data, link-dest savings, and
average duration in a more readable way.

Also add an empty state for fresh installs before completed backup stats
exist.

src/pobsync_backend/stats_summary.py

@@ -37,6 +37,8 @@ def collect_dashboard_stats(*, hosts: Iterable[HostConfig], global_config: Globa
     available = _int_at(capacity, "available_bytes")
     daily_literal = _average_daily_literal(real_runs)
 
+    link_dest_savings_ratio = round(total_matched / savings_basis, 4) if savings_basis else None
+
     return {
         "runs_sampled": len(real_runs),
         "avg_duration_seconds": _average(duration_values),
@@ -44,7 +46,8 @@ def collect_dashboard_stats(*, hosts: Iterable[HostConfig], global_config: Globa
         "avg_literal_data_bytes": avg_literal,
         "total_literal_data_bytes": total_literal,
         "total_matched_data_bytes": total_matched,
-        "link_dest_savings_ratio": round(total_matched / savings_basis, 4) if savings_basis else None,
+        "link_dest_savings_ratio": link_dest_savings_ratio,
+        "link_dest_savings_percent": round(link_dest_savings_ratio * 100, 1) if link_dest_savings_ratio is not None else None,
         "estimated_runs_until_full": int(available / avg_literal) if available and avg_literal else None,
         "estimated_days_until_full": int(available / daily_literal) if available and daily_literal else None,
         "capacity": capacity,

src/pobsync_backend/templates/pobsync_backend/base.html

@@ -149,6 +149,43 @@
       font-size: 12px;
       gap: 10px;
     }
+    .insight-grid {
+      display: grid;
+      gap: 18px 24px;
+      grid-template-columns: minmax(260px, 1.3fr) repeat(auto-fit, minmax(180px, 1fr));
+    }
+    .insight-main,
+    .insight-item {
+      display: grid;
+      gap: 4px;
+      min-width: 0;
+    }
+    .insight-main .label,
+    .insight-item .label {
+      color: var(--muted);
+      font-size: 12px;
+      font-weight: 650;
+      text-transform: uppercase;
+    }
+    .insight-main .value,
+    .insight-item .value {
+      font-size: 22px;
+      font-weight: 650;
+      overflow-wrap: anywhere;
+    }
+    .storage-meter {
+      background: #edf2f7;
+      border-radius: 999px;
+      height: 10px;
+      margin: 4px 0;
+      overflow: hidden;
+    }
+    .storage-meter span {
+      background: var(--link);
+      display: block;
+      height: 100%;
+      max-width: 100%;
+    }
     .host-list {
       display: grid;
       gap: 12px;
@@ -305,6 +342,7 @@
       .host-card-status { justify-content: flex-start; max-width: none; }
       .host-card-layout { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
       .host-card-stats { grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(140px, 1fr)); }
+      .insight-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
     }
   </style>
 </head>

src/pobsync_backend/templates/pobsync_backend/dashboard.html

@@ -38,18 +38,67 @@
     <div class="metric"><div class="label">Failed</div><div class="value">{{ counts.failed_runs }}</div></div>
   </section>
 
-  {% if stats_summary.runs_sampled %}
+  <section class="panel">
-    <section class="grid" aria-label="Backup trends">
+    <h2>Backup Trends</h2>
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Backup Root Used</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.capacity.used_percent|default:"" }}{% if stats_summary.capacity.used_percent is not None %}%{% endif %}</div></div>
+    {% if stats_summary.runs_sampled %}
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Available</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.capacity.available_bytes|filesizeformat }}</div></div>
+      <div class="insight-grid" aria-label="Backup trends">
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Avg New Data</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.avg_literal_data_bytes|filesizeformat }}</div></div>
+        <div class="insight-main">
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Avg Daily New</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.avg_daily_literal_data_bytes|filesizeformat }}</div></div>
+          <div class="label">Storage Used</div>
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Avg Duration</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.avg_duration_seconds|default:"" }}{% if stats_summary.avg_duration_seconds is not None %}s{% endif %}</div></div>
+          <div class="value">
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Link-Dest Savings</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.link_dest_savings_ratio|default:"" }}</div></div>
+            {% if stats_summary.capacity.used_percent is not None %}
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Runs Until Full</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.estimated_runs_until_full|default:"" }}</div></div>
+              {{ stats_summary.capacity.used_percent|floatformat:1 }}%
-      <div class="metric"><div class="label">Days Until Full</div><div class="value">{{ stats_summary.estimated_days_until_full|default:"" }}</div></div>
+            {% else %}
-    </section>
+              unknown
-  {% endif %}
+            {% endif %}
+          </div>
+          {% if stats_summary.capacity.used_percent is not None %}
+            <div class="storage-meter" aria-label="Backup root storage usage">
+              <span style="width: {{ stats_summary.capacity.used_percent|floatformat:0 }}%"></span>
+            </div>
+          {% endif %}
+          <div class="muted">
+            {{ stats_summary.capacity.available_bytes|filesizeformat }} available from the backup root.
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="insight-item">
+          <div class="label">Runway</div>
+          <div class="value">
+            {% if stats_summary.estimated_days_until_full %}
+              {{ stats_summary.estimated_days_until_full }} days
+            {% elif stats_summary.estimated_runs_until_full %}
+              {{ stats_summary.estimated_runs_until_full }} runs
+            {% else %}
+              unknown
+            {% endif %}
+          </div>
+          <div class="muted">Estimated from average new data per day.</div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="insight-item">
+          <div class="label">New Data</div>
+          <div class="value">{{ stats_summary.avg_daily_literal_data_bytes|filesizeformat }}/day</div>
+          <div class="muted">{{ stats_summary.avg_literal_data_bytes|filesizeformat }} per backup on average.</div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="insight-item">
+          <div class="label">Link-Dest Savings</div>
+          <div class="value">
+            {% if stats_summary.link_dest_savings_percent is not None %}
+              {{ stats_summary.link_dest_savings_percent|floatformat:1 }}%
+            {% else %}
+              unknown
+            {% endif %}
+          </div>
+          <div class="muted">{{ stats_summary.total_matched_data_bytes|filesizeformat }} reused across sampled runs.</div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="insight-item">
+          <div class="label">Average Duration</div>
+          <div class="value">{{ stats_summary.avg_duration_seconds|default:"unknown" }}{% if stats_summary.avg_duration_seconds is not None %}s{% endif %}</div>
+          <div class="muted">Based on {{ stats_summary.runs_sampled }} completed backup run{{ stats_summary.runs_sampled|pluralize }} with stats.</div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    {% else %}
+      <p class="muted">No completed backup runs with stats yet. This section will show disk usage, growth estimates, and link-dest savings after the first real backup finishes.</p>
+    {% endif %}
+  </section>
 
   <section class="panel">
     <h2>Hosts</h2>

src/pobsync_backend/tests/test_views.py

@@ -120,10 +120,13 @@ class ViewTests(TestCase):
         response = self.client.get(reverse("dashboard"))
 
         self.assertEqual(response.status_code, 200)
-        self.assertContains(response, "Backup Root Used")
+        self.assertContains(response, "Backup Trends")
-        self.assertContains(response, "Runs Until Full")
+        self.assertContains(response, "Storage Used")
-        self.assertContains(response, "Avg Daily New")
+        self.assertContains(response, "Runway")
-        self.assertContains(response, "Days Until Full")
+        self.assertContains(response, "New Data")
+        self.assertContains(response, "Link-Dest Savings")
+        self.assertContains(response, "80.0%")
+        self.assertContains(response, "10 days")
         self.assertContains(response, "Warnings")
         self.assertContains(response, "Queued")
         self.assertContains(response, "Next Run")
@@ -133,6 +136,18 @@ class ViewTests(TestCase):
         self.assertContains(response, "manual")
         self.assertContains(response, "1000")
 
+    def test_dashboard_explains_missing_backup_trends(self) -> None:
+        self.client.force_login(self.staff_user)
+        GlobalConfig.objects.create(name="default", backup_root="/opt/pobsync/backups")
+        HostConfig.objects.create(host="web-01", address="web-01.example.test")
+
+        response = self.client.get(reverse("dashboard"))
+
+        self.assertEqual(response.status_code, 200)
+        self.assertContains(response, "Backup Trends")
+        self.assertContains(response, "No completed backup runs with stats yet.")
+        self.assertContains(response, "growth estimates")
+
     def test_dashboard_surfaces_retention_warnings(self) -> None:
         self.client.force_login(self.staff_user)
         host = HostConfig.objects.create(